There are many lessons to be learned this weekend. But chief among them is what it’s like for a major movie studio to open a movie with a large number of its actors, mostly its lead star, unavailable for press.
That’s the big looming question that’s been on everyone’s mind after Ezra Miller’s tabloid-laden 2020-2022 about Warner Bros.’ $200 million. DC Flashwhich is not looking good with a 3-day around 60 million dollarsfrom the $70-75 million the studio was expecting.
The studio is still waiting for the June 11 holiday to deliver and ship the film 70 million dollars over 4 days in 4,234 theaters (if that’s the case, it’s the first time the federal holiday, which has yet to prove to be a big movie day, has brought a daily gross for a movie north of $10 million. Last year, Universal Jurassic World: Dominion earned just $8.6 million on the June Monday holiday. The pic made $24.5 million yesterday (which includes Thursday previews). Other studios see these numbers lower. Given last night’s $9.7 million previews, at a glance, it looked like Flash had the potential to over-deliver and beat its weekend ratings, and that seems less likely now. Should the movie have gone straight to the Warners streaming service, Max? Absolutely not. They need to make as much money as they can, and that is through the windows.
With a SAG-AFTRA strike authorization in place, if talks go sideways and actors are not allowed to do press in those situations, studios, broadcasters, etc. might want to think twice before playing the infamous ball, since that’s what happens when your cast isn’t available to promote a big movie.
Now, San Diego Comic-Con is in check with the unavailability of the creators of the TV series. Warners did not rely on Miller Flashpress tour, the star made his first Hollywood appearance since his legal troubles at Monday night’s premiere flash, which was limited to a phone call on the red carpet (no video or press interviews, except for a few bloggers). But most of the actors were not available for the 360-degree press, we hear.
Know that late-night shows going dark during the WGA strike also compounded Warner’s problems here. While Keaton appeared at screenings for a Q&A in London and Paris, and shared the film on social media, he was busy filming Beetle juice 2 for Warner Bros. Sasha Calle, who plays Supergirl, lobbied in Miami and Texas. Where was Ben Affleck? Late night TV offers a fun, not to mention controlled environment where talent can bypass any sticky chatter. The reason many didn’t sit down with much of the press is that they weren’t inclined to ask uncomfortable questions about the film’s lead star, Miller. Flash also didn’t have an $80-$100 million plus promotional partner campaign like most of these brands do (that said, they did have some partners, eg Puma with Flash sneakers), which is essential when it comes to beating the summer buzz and opening a movie in big numbers.
But something else is happening here Flash, billed by DC co-head James Gunn in January as “perhaps one of the greatest superhero movies ever made.” And it is that moviegoers disagree, giving it a B CinemaScore AND 77% on Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak comes out with a 59% recommendation. That noise, accompanied by the fact that Flash it’s very male-heavy and doesn’t attract as many women Aquaman AND Wonder Woman, it’s slowing him down.
What about all the multiverse stuff and the return of Michael Keaton’s Batman? To your average moviegoer, what Flash it’s at the end of the day a movie about a character in the deeper DC universe, and that’s The Flash. Going universe deep in a superhero movie comes with the risk of posting less than $100M openings, and yes, franchises have to start somewhere, ie. Thor AND Captain America: The First Avenger ($65 million) and Thor ($65.7 million). Aquaman may have posted a $67.8M 3-day, but it launched during a Christmas holiday and previews opened with $105.4M over 5 days off an A-CinemaScore. However, you’ll notice heading into the weekend that Warner Bros. DC did not announce it Flash 2 with director Andy Muschietti. Instead, they announced that he will direct Gunn and co-DC Boss Peter Safran’s new film. Batman, Brave and courageous.
Look, no studio envies the position Warners has been in flash, and rivals and marketing colleagues highly praise Burbank, CA for running the best possible campaign with entertaining trailers that sold the film primarily on its superhero, The Flash, plus the return of Michael Keaton’s Batman. No one is blaming Warners for tying their shoes together and going down here.
To get the word out, Warners spent a lot on the trailer. iSpot, which monitors what studios distribute to TV spots in the US (and again, this is just one aspect of Flashmarketing campaign overhead), shows Warners spending $31.3 million on spots for the Miller film, which drew 1.07 billion impressions. That’s more in iSpot’s metrics than Disney spent Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($24.3 million) and BASIC ($12.9 million), more than Paramount spent Transformers: Rise of the Beasts ($17.2 million) and 3 times more than Sony spent Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse ($10.9 million). Main networks for Flash spots by impressions were ABC, ESPN, TNT, Fox and NBC while the top shows for DC movie spots were NBA games, SportsCenter, NFL (remember Warners took out a Super Bowl spot), men’s college basketball and the Today show.
Flash played best in south-central and west. Warners has Imax on the film, and along with PLFs, we hear the two formats are bringing in 42% of the picture’s gross. The top theater in the country for the DC movie is AMC Burbank with nearly $93K so far this weekend, including early shows.
Other deals from this weekend:
As expected, not only flash, but Disney/Pixar’s BASIC it was neither fire nor ice enchantment, with a rating 30 million dollars 3 days after a Friday about $11.8 million. 4-day can be 33 million dollars in 4035 cinemas. We always knew that after the sour reviews from Cannes, this Pixar film about the inhabitants of a world of fire and ice was not going to do wonders. The whole concept has been hard to win over kids and families. But more than that, the film feels like a watered-down version of the existential live stuff we’ve seen from the Emeryville, CA studio with Inside out AND Spirit. Very old, same old. You knew it was going to be bad when we heard about all those layoffs. Who knew we’d live in an age where Illumination would outsell Pixar? Pixar and Disney Animation are indeed still looking to fill the creative hole left by the departure of John Lasseter.
However, BASIC it gets an “A” CinemaScore plus PostTrak good outputs of 85% positive and 68% recommend. Children under 12 liked it with 92% positive, 62% recommend. We knew it was always mom-leaning, with 63% women showing up and 66% between 18-34. Great mix of diversity with 32% Latino/Hispanic, 30% Caucasian, 25% Asian/Other, and 13% Black. BASIC played harder in the middle of the country and in the west. BASIC there were some PLFs driving 6% of weekend ticket sales, while 3D is repeating close to 17%. Hollywood’s El Capitan is the top-grossing theater with $41K to date (including previews).
The four-day box with all these retainers as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (also potential 30 million dollars 3 days in weekend 3, 35.1 million dollars 4-day at 3,873 to potentially tap BASIC outside the second place; the total direction of 287.6 million dollars) is pushing for a weekend close to $200 million. This is something that the exhibition business should be happy about with all this product on the market, despite the humble beginnings Flash AND Elementary.
Lionsgate’s EXPULSION He did 2.5 million dollars yesterday for what will be 6-8 million dollars over 3 days at #6 in 1,775 theaters. The horror comedy directed by Tim Story gets a B+ CinemaScore and PostTrak of 81% positive, and a recommendation of 64%. 50/50 male-female split with 60% among 18-34, and the largest demo is 18-24 with 31%. The audience mix was 27% white, 14% Latino, 53% black, and 5% Asian/other. blackening played strongest in the East, South and Midwest.
A big flame here in the art houses, like Focus Features’ Wes Anderson film, Asteroid City, is posting a mass 120 thousand dollars theater average – the best since the pandemic, as the pic will cost $720,000 in six NYC and LA theaters and 804 thousand dollars during four days. The Tom Hanks, Jason Schwartzman, Scarlett Johansson, Jeff Goldblum, Edward Norton ensemble is booked at the newly opened Sunset 5, which Landmark took over, AMC Century City, AMC Burbank, Angelika NY, Alamo Brooklyn, AMC LSQ. Good news for LA arthouse The Landmark Sunset 5 led the pack (a full theater take) with an impressive $80K on Friday alone (Pic’s Friday total was $350K).
Paramount Transformers: Rise of the Beasts is fourth, with $5.2 million Friday at 3,680 theaters, 19.6 million dollars 3-day (-68%), 22.4 million dollars 4-day and running total of 103 million dollars in 3,680 theaters.
Disney’s The little mermaid is fifth with 3,480 theaters, a $3.7 million Friday, estimated 12.9 million dollars 3-day (-44%), 14.2 million dollars 4 days and 256.1 million dollars in total on the weekend 4.
