#1 = The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Lionsgate’s dystopian action prequel starts with $44M, substantially below the openings for all four installments in the original franchise:
- -71% below 2012’s The Hunger Games: $152.5M
- -72% below 2013’s Catching Fire: $158.0M
- -64% below 2014’s Mockingjay Part 1: $121.8M
- -57% below 2015’s Mockingjay Part 2: $102.6M
That’s a slightly steeper opening weekend dropoff than 2016’s first Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, the first installment of Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter prequel series, which opened -56% off from the last of the original series’ films.
The original four Hunger Games installments finished with nearly identical multiples, a measure of final gross to opening weekend: 2.67x, 2.69x, 2.77x, and 2.74x respectively.
If Songbirds follows a similar trajectory, it will finish somewhere around $115M to $120M—lower than three of the four original films’ opening weekends alone.
Read Boxoffice PRO’s interview with The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes director Francis Lawrence here.
#2 = Trolls Band Together
Universal’s animated three-quel started with $30.6M, -34% below 2016’s original Trolls: $46.5M.
(2020’s second installment, Trolls World Tour, was originally intended for theatrical release but pivoted to a Premium Video on Demand or PVOD release during the Covid pandemic.)
Compared to some other comparable animated releases from 2023, Band opens:
- +3% ahead of June’s Elemental = $29.6M
- +9% ahead of August’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem = $28.0M
- +34% ahead of September’s PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie = $22.7M
Band’s estimated opening weekend audience was 71% female, 59% ages 25+, and more Hispanic (37%) than white (34%).
Overseas / global
By this, the sixth weekend of its staggered international rollout, beginning on the October 13 frame, Band has earned $76.3M overseas and $108.1M globally, or 70% overseas.
(That overseas percentage will surely come down in the coming weeks, as domestic catches up.)
2016’s original Trolls earned $189.5M overseas and $343.2M globally, or 55% overseas.
#3 (tied) = Thanksgiving
The Sony Pictures holiday-themed horror starts with $10.2M.
Comparisons are few and far between, but that’s -24% below 2022’s similar R-rated holiday-themed film Violent Night with $13.4M.
Studio weekend estimates have both Thanksgiving and The Marvels tied at exactly $10.2M; box office actuals, coming in Monday afternoon, will provide more exact numbers.
For what it’s worth, last weekend, The Marvels ultimately came in below its original studio estimate, at $46.1M versus $47.0M.
Overseas / global
Thanksgiving opened in only 11 overseas markets with $2.4M. Major markets still to release include France, Mexico, and Brazil.
#3 (tied) = The Marvels
Last weekend, Disney’s superhero sequel posted by far the worst opening in the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) with only $46.1M.
Now in its sophomore frame, it falls a steep -77% to $10.2M, by far the steepest sophomore drop among all 33 MCU installments.
The second-steepest of the MCU’s sophomore drops came earlier this year: February’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania with -69.9%.
Put another way, The Marvels appears almost certain to finish with a final domestic total less than the opening weekend alone for 2019’s predecessor Captain Marvel: $153.4M.
Only one prior MCU film even posted a third weekend as low as The Marvels’ second weekend: 2008’s The Incredible Hulk with a third frame of $9.5M.
Compared to Marvel’s rival DC Comics, The Marvel also falls steeper than some other recent DC Extended Universe underperformers, like June’s The Flash with -72% and 2022’s Black Adam at -59%.
Overseas / global
Last weekend, The Marvels opened to $110.3M globally. That was -75% below the global opening for 2019’s Captain Marvel: $455.4M.
Now in its sophomore frame, The Marvels falls -67% in overseas holdover markets, still quite steep but at least milder than its -77% domestic drop.
The Marvels has now earned $96.3M overseas and $161.3M globally, or 59% overseas.
It appears unlikely to reach its predecessor’s global opening even by the end of its run and will finish nowhere near its predecessor’s $1.13B final global total.
The Marvels appears poised to become either the lowest or second-lowest grossing MCU film globally. Currently, the lowest is The Incredible Hulk with $265M, followed by 2011’s Captain America: The First Avengers with $370M.
The top market totals for The Marvels to date are:
- China: $14.7M
- U.K.: $7.2M
- Indonesia: $5.2M
- South Korea: $4.8M
- France: $4.8M
- Mexico: $4.8M
#6= The Holdovers
Last weekend, Focus Features’ comedy-drama came in sixth place with $3.2M. Now, it again repeats in sixth place with a mild -16% decline to $2.68M.
In its fourth frame, the film expands and almost doubles from 778 to 1,475 theaters, though that’s still about 38% the reach of the widest film in the marketplace.
#7 = Next Goal Wins
Searchlight Pictures’ sports comedy failed to get the ball into the net with a $2.5M start. While the smaller movie was never going to break records, that’s below even most pre-release projections.
It’s -51% below March’s Champions, another similar comedy about a hapless sports team, with $5.1M.
It’s also -36% below writer-director Taika Waititi’s 2019 Jojo Rabbit with $3.9M.
Journey to Bethlehem
Last weekend, the Sony Pictures / Affirm Films faith-based musical began with $2.4M in seventh place. Now in its sophomore frame, it falls -60% to $950K.
Versus three of the other biggest faith-based films from 2023, that sophomore drop is equal to or steeper than:
- September’s The Blind: -26%
- March’s His Only Son: -49%
- October’s After Death: -60%
Perhaps surprisingly, Bethlehem isn’t holding well at the box office, even though every subsequent weekend approaches the Christmas season which provides the film’s plot.
Limited release: Dream Scenario
Last weekend, A24’s fantasy comedy debuted with $220,035 in six theaters. That $36,673 per-screen average ranks #8 of 2023 so far.
In its sophomore frame, it expanded slightly to 25 theaters and earns an estimated $275,514, for a $11,021 average.
Limited release: Saltburn
The Amazon MGM Studios psychological thriller opened with an estimated $315,492 in seven theaters. That $45,070 ranks #6 of 2023 so far, behind only:
- June’s Asteroid City: $142,230
- April’s Beau is Afraid: $80,099
- June’s Past Lives: $58,067
- July’s Theater Camp: $50,203
- August’s Bottoms: $46,105
Total box office this weekend came in around $113.6M.
Here’s how this weekend compares to last weekend, the same weekend last year, and the same weekend in the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:
This weekend is:
The Marvels = $46.1M
Same weekend in 2022
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, second frame = $66.4M
Same weekend in 2019
Ford v. Ferrari = $31.4M
Year-to-date box office stands around $7.93B.
Through the equivalent point, here’s how that compares to last year and the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:
2023 YTD now:
After last weekend:
Grouped by parent company, the YTD leaders are:
- Disney + 20th Century + Searchlight + Star: $1.798B
- Universal + Focus Features: $1.788B
- Warner Bros.: $1.15B
- Sony Pictures + Sony Classics + Crunchyroll + Affirm: $882.1M
- Paramount: $836.6M
Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates:
|Title||Estimated weekend||% change||Locations||Location change||Average||Total||Weekend||Distributor|
|The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes||$44,000,000||3,776||$11,653||$44,000,000||1||Lionsgate|
|Trolls Band Together||$30,600,000||3,870||$7,907||$31,770,000||1||Universal|
|Five Nights at Freddy’s||$3,500,000||-61%||2,829||-865||$1,237||$132,612,000||4||Universal|
|The Holdovers||$2,700,000||-16%||1,478||700||$1,827||$8,357,000||4||Focus Features [Universal]|
|Next Goal Wins||$2,500,000||2,240||$1,116||$2,500,000||1||Searchlight [Disney]|
|Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour||$2,400,000||-61%||1,573||-1,275||$1,526||$175,300,000||6||AMC Theatres Distribution + Variance|
|Killers of the Flower Moon||$1,920,000||-58%||1,714||-1,643||$1,120||$63,570,000||5||Paramount|
|Journey to Bethlehem||$950,000||-60%||2,002||$475||$4,268,000||2||Sony Pictures|
|PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie||$270,000||-84%||625||-1,154||$432||$65,097,000||8||Paramount|
|Anatomy of a Fall||$170,000||-63%||170||-413||$1,000||$3,189,247||6||Neon|
|The Exorcist: Believer||$125,000||-89%||295||-1,292||$424||$65,461,000||7||Universal|
|After Death||$66,313||-92%||140||-1,571||$474||$11,399,629||4||Angel Studios|
|The Creator||$43,000||-85%||165||-295||$261||$40,766,647||8||20th Century Studios [Disney]|
|What Happens Later||$27,336||-96%||106||-1,344||$258||$3,260,728||3||Bleecker Street|
|The Disappearance of Shere Hite||$17,000||2||$8,500||$17,000||1||IFC Films|
|Stop Making Sense||$14,099||-56%||24||-2||$587||$5,032,127||Cinecom|
|Common Ground||$10,096||24%||4||-2||$2,524||$210,907||8||Area 23a|
|Dicks: The Musical||$9,346||-36%||18||-4||$519||$1,434,590||7||A24|
|All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt||$4,090||-60%||4||-2||$1,023||$40,841||3||A24|